US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Fresh Strikes Rock Middle East and Khamenei Is Buried

The ceasefire that Washington and Tehran had signed under Qatari and Pakistani mediation in mid-June has effectively collapsed, with the United States launching what US Central Command described as a series of powerful strikes against Iran on July 7, and Iran retaliating by claiming it had targeted more than 80 American military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The breakdown came as Iran was in the middle of a six-day state funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28 — the first day of the US-Israeli military campaign — after nearly 37 years in power. CNN reported on July 9 that diplomacy is happening behind the scenes to ease tensions, with Pakistan and Qatar working to bring the two countries back to the negotiating table. The Trump administration also reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz.

The scale and pageantry of Khamenei's funeral underlined the political stakes for the Islamic Republic's new leadership. Scores of Iranians, mostly wearing black, gathered at Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla in Tehran as the country opened the ceremonies on July 4, according to CNN, with processions subsequently scheduled across Iran and Iraq. Al Jazeera reported that Iran's army chief, Major General Amir Hatami, used the funeral to pledge that those responsible for Khamenei's killing must face punishment, while enormous crowds chanted calls for revenge against the United States and Israel. Mourners took part in a symbolic stoning ceremony directed at an image of President Donald Trump, according to footage cited by state-affiliated Iranian media.

The most consequential political uncertainty surrounding the funeral has been the conspicuous absence of Mojtaba Khamenei, who was named Supreme Leader a week after his father's death but has yet to appear in public. CBS News reported that a source told CNN that Mojtaba is unlikely to attend any of the ceremonies, including a private family burial. According to CNN reporting, even within the Islamic Republic's own support base, the absence of the new supreme leader has created space for factional unrest — and during the funeral, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was reportedly attacked by regime supporters opposed to any ceasefire agreement with Washington. Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who also serves as parliament speaker, acknowledged that implementing the ceasefire was difficult, but he described it as achievable.

On the military and economic dimensions of the conflict, the collapse of the truce has had immediate consequences for one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. CNN reported on July 9 that the number of ships transiting the Persian Gulf had fallen to just thirteen vessels in a 24-hour window, compared with roughly 110 a day before the war began. The Trump administration reimposed oil sanctions on Iran via a General License issued by the Treasury Department, which had previously authorized Iranian crude transactions through August 21. The Washington Post reported that US strategy has involved deliberately striking and then pausing to avoid escalation and allow diplomacy to work, with Washington maintaining a target list as leverage. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call on July 9 agreeing to continue coordination, even as reports indicated the two countries appeared less aligned than at the conflict's outset.

The path forward for both sides remains deeply uncertain. Iran's negotiating team faces a divided domestic constituency — hardliners who oppose any accommodation with Washington, and pragmatists who believe a deal is the only way to avert further destruction. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies noted in its July foreign policy tracker that while the US-Iran relationship may appear steadier on some fronts, the underlying rivalry is hardening. With the Strait of Hormuz partially paralyzed, global energy markets on edge, and a new and invisible supreme leader yet to consolidate authority, the coming weeks will determine whether Qatar and Pakistan can revive the diplomatic channel — or whether a broader regional escalation becomes unavoidable.